Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 on Monday morning after President Trump signaled an end to Iran tensions could be near, while not ruling out further military strikes before the midterms. Meanwhile the fundamentals tell a friendlier story: Bitcoin is tracking toward its second-best Q3 in history, Solana ETFs are seeing record inflows, and global money supply just hit a new all-time high. Here are the most important crypto developments from the past 24 hours.
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Image: “Holding Bitcoin cryptocurrency coin” by Satheesh Sankaran, licensed CC BY 2.0, source: Wikimedia Commons
Bitcoin Falls Below $83,000 as Iran Risk Weighs on Sentiment
Bitcoin fell about 1.6% on Monday to an intraday low near $83,100, after Trump said on Sunday he expects the war with Iran to end “very soon” but would not rule out further strikes before the US midterm elections. Iran had previously offered a seven-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a proposal Trump reportedly rejected. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin managed its second consecutive weekly close above the 50-week moving average, which many market observers still read as a sign of an intact medium-term uptrend.
Trump Announces Oval Office Address for 2 PM ET
The White House has scheduled an announcement from President Trump at the Oval Office for 2:00 PM Eastern Time, without disclosing the topic in advance. The event follows a dinner with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and is being linked by observers to possible AI-policy moves, such as faster data-center permitting or new semiconductor tariffs. Crypto traders are also watching closely, given Trump’s repeated remarks about Bitcoin’s potential role in government-backed savings programs.
German Conservative Lawmakers Push Back Against Bitcoin Tax Reform
In Germany, a report by tabloid BILD indicates resistance is building within the CDU/CSU coalition against Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s planned abolition of the one-year tax-free holding period for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Finance-focused lawmakers such as Olav Gutting and Fritz Güntzler are reportedly taking a clear stance against the reform, while several CDU state premiers are threatening to block it in the Bundesrat. The leaked draft bill from the Finance Ministry would apply the new rules only to crypto assets acquired after December 31, 2026, with existing holdings largely grandfathered in — though a final bill has not yet been presented.
Bitcoin Tracking Second-Best Q3 Ever, Ethereum on Record Pace
Bitcoin has gained roughly 43.5% so far in the third quarter, putting it on track for its second-best Q3 on record — behind only the roughly 80% gain in 2017. Ethereum’s performance is even more striking: up about 71% this quarter, ETH is set for its best Q3 ever, surpassing its previous record set in 2025. The rally is notable given that Q3 has historically been one of the weaker seasonal periods for crypto markets.
Michael Saylor Keeps Buying: Strategy Now Holds 846,000 Bitcoin
Michael Saylor’s company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added another 950 BTC last week for roughly $75.7 million. The firm now holds about 846,000 Bitcoin — more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply cap. According to the company, that position now carries roughly $8.1 billion in unrealized gains. Saylor remains the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin worldwide.
Rate Bets Shift: Market Prices 64% Chance of Another October Rate Hike
Sentiment in rate markets has soured further: according to CME FedWatch data, traders are now pricing in roughly a 64% probability of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its October 28 meeting. Higher rates are generally seen as a headwind for riskier asset classes like crypto, since they make fixed-income alternatives more attractive. Even so, the crypto market has so far shown resilience against that expectation.
US Consumer Confidence Falls to Second-Lowest Level on Record
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a final September reading of 48.1, down from 51.7 in August and marking the second-lowest level ever recorded. The decline underscores growing unease among American consumers amid high interest rates, geopolitical tension, and a softening labor market. Economists often view weak consumer sentiment as an early indicator of slowing economic momentum.
Global Money Supply Hits Record $103.66 Trillion
Global M2 money supply across the world’s major central banks — the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and China’s PBoC — has reached a new all-time high of $103.66 trillion. Roughly $1 trillion was added in August alone, marking the tenth consecutive monthly increase. Rising global liquidity is widely seen by market watchers as a structural tailwind for assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, since more capital in circulation tends to flow into risk assets.
Solana ETFs Post Record Week: $188 Million in Inflows
US spot Solana ETFs drew about $188 million in net inflows last week — their second-strongest week since launch. Bitwise’s BSOL fund accounted for roughly $128 million, or about 68% of total inflows, followed by Grayscale’s GSOL with around $28 million. Friday alone brought in about $87 million, a new single-day record since the products launched. Cumulative net inflows across all Solana ETFs now exceed $1.6 billion.
Quant (QNT) Surges Over 300% After Banking Deal
The token of blockchain infrastructure provider Quant surged roughly 322% over the past week to reach nearly $258, gaining another 52% in a single 24-hour period. The rally was triggered by two banking partnerships announced on the same day: The Clearing House, a payments network owned by 25 of the largest US banks (including JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo), selected Quant’s technology for its “On-Chain Money Initiative.” In parallel, UK Finance confirmed that institutions including Barclays, HSBC UK, Lloyds, and NatWest are running live tokenized sterling payments on Quant’s platform. Analysts also point to Quant’s earlier selection as a partner in the European Central Bank’s digital euro pilot project.
Bottom Line
The crypto market is currently caught between two opposing forces: short-term geopolitical risk around Iran is weighing on sentiment, while structural factors — record money supply, strong ETF demand for Bitcoin and Solana, a historically strong Q3, and continued institutional buying like Strategy’s — continue to support the longer-term trend. Trump’s afternoon announcement and the trajectory of the Iran situation are likely to be the key drivers of short-term price direction in the coming days.
